Market Commentary for the Week of March 14th

      
This week brings us the release of seven monthly reports for the bond market to digest in addition to a Fed-filled day in the middle part of the week. The most important reports and Fed events take place the middle days, so we may see the most movement in mortgage rates those days.

Today starts the week's activities with the release of February’s Retail Sales data and Producer Price Index. The sales report will come from the Commerce Department at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday morning. This data is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending strength. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the markets. This month’s report is expected to show a decline in sales of approximately 0.1%. If it reveals an unexpected increase, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will move higher as it would indicate a stronger level of economic growth than many had thought. If it reveals a much weaker level of spending, I expect to see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve Tuesday morning.

The Labor Department will post February’s Producer Price Index (PPI), also this morning. This important index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy (such as gasoline) prices. If the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns will rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. This could possibly lead to higher mortgage rates this morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% drop in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data. The weaker the core reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning has three reports being released. The most important of the batch is February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It is the sister release to Tuesday's PPI but measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. The CPI is expected to show a 0.2% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data. As with the PPI, weaker than expected readings would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also early tomorrow morning, February’s Housing Starts data will be released. This report tracks construction starts of new housing. It doesn’t usually cause much movement in mortgage rates and is considered one of the less important reports we see each month. It is expected to show an increase in housing starts, indicating growth in the housing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a sizable decline in new starts, but unless we see a large variance from forecasts the data likely will not lead to a noticeable move in mortgage pricing.

The third and final morning release of the day will be February’s Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. This report measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.3% decline from January’s level. A larger decline would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness and broader economic growth would be more difficult if manufacturing activity is slipping.

Wednesday also has several Fed events scheduled. They start with the 2:00 PM ET adjournment of the two-day FOMC meeting that began Tuesday. The general consensus is that Fed Chairman Yellen and company will not raise key short-term interest rates at this meeting, although some market participants feel it is possible. Even if no move is made, we will be closely watching the post-meeting statement for changes in verbiage that could indicate when their next move is likely to take place. Any surprises could heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

The FOMC meeting is ending a little earlier than the traditional 2:15 PM because it is one of the meetings that will be followed by a press conference with Chairman Yellen (her first as Chairman). The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM, which is also when the Fed will update their economic projections. They will be followed by a press conference at 2:30 PM. These events will probably lead to afternoon volatility in the markets and mortgage rates Wednesday.

The Conference Board will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February late Thursday morning also. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is considered to be moderately important, but likely will not have a significant impact on mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase, meaning it is predicting that economic activity will likely expand modestly in the coming months. A smaller than forecasted rise, or better yet a decline would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Friday closes the week's calendar with the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for March just before 10:00 AM ET. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, then they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. This helps fuel consumer spending levels and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. Bad news for bonds and mortgage rates would be rapidly rising confidence. It is expected to show a reading of 92.2 which would be an increase from February’s final reading 91.7.

Overall, I am considering Wednesday as the key day of the week with the Fed events scheduled but Tuesday's data can also cause volatility in the markets. The least important day will probably be Monday or Friday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield closed Friday at 1.98%. This is dangerously close to 2.00%, which I believe if broken will cause another noticeable move higher. Because mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, this would be bad news for mortgage shoppers. Therefore, I am holding the conservative stance towards locking or floating an interest rate at this time. If closing in the near future, it may be prudent to consider locking or at least maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate. At least until it is clear whether yields will move lower or higher from this level.

Improve Your Chances of Obtaining a Home Mortgage

  Securing financing to purchase a new home is one of the most important, exciting, and nerve-wracking financial steps most people will ever take.

During the housing boom, mortgage requirements were relaxed to unsustainable levels, and it seemed just about anyone could approach a lender and walk away with financing. But in an effort to recover from a record increase in foreclosures and loan defaults, lenders have become more stringent; loan applicants must now meet more demanding requirements to obtain a mortgage.

Does this mean that you won’t be able to get the financing you need? In a word, no. Here are a few tips to follow for a smoother path to home ownership.

Shore up your credit!

If there is one thing you can do to increase your chance of obtaining a mortgage loan, it is to take careful stock of your credit situation and address any issues that are lowering your credit score. The first thing to do is to order a copy of your credit record from all three major credit reporting agencies: TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian. Look over this information carefully to make sure that all three agencies are aligned in their rating of your credit. If you see any errors, dispute them with the company in question. If your credit is too low to obtain an attractive interest rate on a mortgage (680 or higher is considered good; 720 will put your in very good position to secure financing), take a few months to increase it. One way to do this is to take out a credit card, use it to make regular purchases, and pay off the balance monthly.

Reduce your debt.

By paying down your debt, you will not only show a lender that you are a good risk for making regular payments, you will end up with fewer outstanding payments or accounts to factor into your debt-to-income ratio. Simply put, the fewer static payments you have on your financial record, the better. While it might not be feasible for you to pay off your car or student loans quickly, you should be sure that credit card and store balances are low or nonexistent.

Don’t splurge.

If you can put off making any large purchases until after your home sale has closed, do so. This isn’t the time to run out and buy a luxury car or take a lavish vacation. The rule of the day is to be conservative with your spending – meaning more cash in hand for that down payment and reserve cash in the bank to fall back on once you need to start making your monthly mortgage payments.

Save. Save more. And then save more.

The amount of money you have in the bank is going to be important when you need to prove to a lender that you can offer up a healthy down payment. While 20% down is the conventional rule of thumb, there are mortgages available that require less cash up front. Your loan officer can point you in the right direction to take advantage of any low- or no-cost down payment programs for which you might qualify. But wherever possible, add to your savings – more money in the bank can only help you qualify for a loan.

Stability is key.

Maintaining steady employment or income is an absolute must when you apply for a mortgage. This isn’t the time to try a new career path on a lark or risk taking a new position without a lot of job security. Lenders are going to want to see that you have a proven, stable source of income, that you make regular payments on your rent or existing mortgage, and that you seem like a good risk for financing.

Obtaining a mortgage loan may seem like a challenge, but with a little diligence, a little financial restraint, and the aid of an experienced loan officer, you’ll have all the tools you need to secure the financing you need. If you can prove your commitment to the cause, you’ll be on the path to home ownership in no time.

Written by Chip Poli

What To Buy In March

 

March came in like a lamb up here and hopefully that will change since rain is forecast for the next ten days. We hope you’re staying warm and dry where you live. Today we’re going to look at the best and worst things to buy in March as well as what produce is in season.

First the freebies.

Freebies

March 8th is National Pancake Day. iHop will once again be offering a free short stack of buttermilk pancakes from 7AM until 7PM your local time. In return, iHop asks that the guest consider leaving a donation for the Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals or other designated local charities.

Best Bargains

March is National Frozen Food Month. And while it’s largely a marketing ploy to draw attention to the frozen foods industry, be on the lookout for supermarkets offering special coupons in their circulars for different frozen food brands. And if you come across a particularly hot deal, you can easily stock up on the long-lasting foodstuffs. Now would be the time to load up that extra freezer if you have one.

Look for leftover Valentine’s Day candy in the bargain bins. It should be available for pennies on the dollar. And if you prefer higher end chocolate, places like Godiva have been known to offer their Valentine’s boxes at 50% off. Our spies were in a Ghirardelli chocolate store the other day and saw big heart shaped boxes of candy for less then $5.

After-holiday bargains go beyond candy. Look in the gift sections of department stores for leftover Valentine’s Day themed presents that you can get on sale. Just like with Christmas gift baskets, you can take them apart and re-use the items in different ways.

You won’t see good bargains on lingerie, though. For the best prices of the year, wait until June and July.

Smartphones prices drop when the new models got announced at the Mobile World Congress in February.  So if you had wanted a model, and it was last year’s new super phone, now is the time to buy.  Also, talk with service providers about freebie phone deals (warning: you will probably have to sign a 2-year contract). Now, if you really want one of the new phones, wait a few months. Often, providers discount the new phones after it has been released for a short time.

March is typically a slow month for TV deals. But that’s good for you because sellers will want to negotiate as well as offer great sales. If you’re in the market for a mega-TV, expect the sales from February to continue into March. The 55″ sets are again providing the best value and most discounts.

Intel’s current-generation Skylake processors are going in some surprisingly affordable laptops. If you need good value, it’s still better to go with the older-generation Broadwell or even Haswell processors. Last month, we saw 16″ Broadwell laptops for around $400, though one was as little as $330. (The cheapest we saw on Black Friday was $315.) For those who want Skylake, your best bet is a 14″ for around $500.

Luggage deals are starting to increase. We’re not in the holiday season and we’re not in the summer season, so they need to get people buying luggage.

You may want to invest in Amazon Prime. Amazon announced last month that they would be raising the the minimum order for free shipping from $35 to $49 for non-members of Prime, a 40% increase. (Eligible book orders of at least $25 will still ship free.)

You can continue shopping on the site without a membership; it still might be the most affordable option, especially if you make infrequent purchases that are usually over $49. Otherwise, it’s time to either pay for a $99 a year Prime membership, or seek alternatives to Amazon.

Garden seeds are a bargain right now as seed companies try to get people thinking about planting. (and we’ve been trying to get you to think about planting as well).

Winter apparel should be on the clearance racks. It may be well picked over, but there’s always a great find. But don’t expect to find good deals on Spring apparel just yet. Your favorite retailers may have coupons, but there’s usually a catch. If you’re aware of that, you can plan your purchases.

And on March 18th, look for clearance prices on St. Patrick’s Day items.

The Five Biggest Turn-offs For Homebuyers

 

A lot of sellers don’t listen to their real estate agents, so we’ll tell you what your agent wants to say, but can’t say to you and this is it – your agent can’t get you the price you want unless your home is in pristine move-in condition.

That means no sticking drawers in the kitchen. No leaning fences. No rust-stained plumbing fixtures. We could go on, but maybe we need to make it clear. If you have even one of following “turn-offs,” your home won’t sell.

Buyers can get instantly turned off. Here are their five biggest turn-offs:

1. Overpriced for the market
2. Smells
3. Clutter
4. Deferred maintenance
5. Dark, dated décor

Overpricing your home

Overpricing your home is like trying to crash the country club without a membership. You’ll be found out and escorted out.

If you ignored your agent’s advice and listed at a higher price than recommended, you’re going to get some negative feedback from buyers. The worst feedback, of course, is silence. That could include no showings and no offers.

The problem with overpricing your home is that the buyers who are qualified to buy your home won’t see it because they’re shopping in a lower price range. The buyers who do it will quickly realize that there are other homes in the same price range that offer more value.

Smells

Smells can come from a number of sources – pets, lack of cleanliness, stale air, water damage, and much more. You may not even notice it, but your real estate agent may have hinted to you that something needs to be done.

There’s not a buyer in the world that will buy a home that smells unless they’re investors looking for a bargain. Even so, they’ll get a forensic inspection to find out the source of the smells. If they find anything like undisclosed water damage, or pet urine under the “new” carpet, then they will either severely discount their offer or walk away.

Clutter

If your tables are full to the edges with photos, figurines, mail, and drinking glasses, buyers’ attention is going to more focused on running the gauntlet of your living room without breaking any Hummels than in considering your home for purchase.

Too much furniture confuses the eye – it makes it really difficult for buyers to see the proportions of rooms. If they can’t see what they need to know, they move on to the next home.

Deferred maintenance

Deferred maintenance is a polite euphemism for letting your home fall apart. Just like people age due to the effects of the sun, wind and gravity, so do structures like your home. Things wear out, break and weather, and it’s your job as a homeowner to keep your home repaired.

Your buyers really want a home that’s been well-maintained. They don’t want to wonder what needs to fixed next or how much it will cost.

Dated décor

The reason people are looking at your home instead of buying brand new is because of cost and location. They want your neighborhood, but that doesn’t mean they want a dated-looking home. Just like they want a home in good repair, they want a home that looks updated, even if it’s from a different era.

Harvest gold and avocado green from the seventies; soft blues and mauves from the eighties, jewel tones from the nineties, and onyx and pewter from the oughts are all colorways that can date your home. Textures like popcorn ceilings, shag or berber carpet, and flocked wallpaper can also date your home.

When you’re behind the times, buyers don’t want to join you. They want to be perceived as savvy and cool.

In conclusion, the market is a brutal mirror. If you’re guilty of not putting money into your home because you believe it’s an investment that others should pay you to profit, you’re in for a rude awakening. You’ll be stuck with an asset that isn’t selling.

Written by Blanche Evans

Market Commentary for the Week of February 29th

 

This week has six relevant reports for the markets to digest with two being considered highly important. The rest of the reports are moderate to fairly important to the markets, meaning they have the potential to affect mortgage rates but usually don’t cause a noticeable change. The most important data comes early and late in the week, but sizable moves in stocks can impact bond trading and mortgage rates any day.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for February late Tuesday morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a pretty large impact on the financial and mortgage markets if it varies from forecasts. It is expected to show an increase from January’s 48.2 to 48.7 this month. This is important because a reading below 50.0 means more surveyed manufacturers felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. A sub-50 reading is considered a recessionary sign. If we see a weaker than expected reading, the bond market could rally. But, a much higher than forecasted reading, particularly above 50.0 could lead to heavy selling in bonds, causing mortgage rates to rise Tuesday morning. One of the reasons this data is considered so important is the fact that it is usually the first monthly report posted that covers the preceding month. It is traditionally posted the first business day of the month, allowing for a current snapshot of conditions in the manufacturing sector.

This week has a couple of private sector employment-related reports due to be posted. The biggest one comes Wednesday morning from payroll processor ADP who will announce their change in private-sector payrolls processed last month. Since it is not a government agency report, it isn’t considered to be highly important. However, as with any employment-related data, it does draw some attention. This is especially true for this report because it is posted just a couple days before monthly employment figures are released by the Labor Department. I personally believe it is given more attention than it really deserves, particularly because many use it to predict the monthly government figures but often fail miserably. Still, if it shows a noticeable variance from expectations of 190,000 new private sector payrolls, it will likely cause movement in the markets and mortgage rates.

The Fed Beige Book is the next report scheduled for release and it will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report details economic activity throughout the country by Federal Reserve region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading Wednesday. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but it is still worth watching.

Thursday has two reports scheduled for release, but neither is considered to be highly important. The first is the revised Productivity index for the 4th Quarter of last year. The preliminary reading posted last month showed a decline of 3.0% in worker output. Analysts are expecting to see a downward revision of 0.3% to last month’s initial reading. Employee productivity is watched fairly closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns. However, since this data is quite aged now, it likely will have little impact on Thursday’s mortgage rates unless it shows a significant change.

The second report of the day is January’s Factory Orders at 10:00 AM ET, which will give us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This data is similar to last week’s Durable Goods, except this report covers orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 2.0%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and could lead to a slight improvement in mortgage rates since it would point towards economic weakness.

The biggest news of the week comes early Friday morning when one of the single most important monthly reports we see will be posted. The Labor Department will release February’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a much smaller increase in payrolls than expected and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the unemployment rate of 4.9% and approximately 190,000 new jobs added to the economy. Stronger than expected readings will likely fuel a stock market rally and selling in bonds that would cause a sizable upward revision to mortgage rates. On the other hand, disappointing numbers would raise concerns about the economy’s ability to continue to grow that makes another Fed rate hike at their next meeting less likely. This would have an opposite impact on the markets and mortgage pricing.

Overall, look for a fairly active week in the markets and mortgage rates, especially the early and latter days. Friday is the most important day of the week due to the significance of that day’s data but we could also see a noticeable move in rates Tuesday. With data or relevant reports being posted four of five days and some of that data considered key, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing soon.

How Smart Could Your Appliances Be?

Last week at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, some major brands displayed some appliances, but not all that you’d expect. Whirlpool and Bosch had appliances, and Haier showed mostly TVs in its exhibit space. Other white goods brands such as Sears, GE, Maytag and Electrolux did not show off any major appliances.

Instead, it was mainstream Korean electronics brands Samsung and LG who played “can you top this” where smart appliances – mostly refrigerators – were concerned.

First, Samsung announced its Family Hub Refrigerator (available this May), which is essentially a 21.5-inch vertical tablet with a four-door refrigerator attached.

The Family Hub fridge is equipped with a 1920 by 1080p touchscreen with Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and speakers. Its pre-installed apps are family- and kitchen-centric, such as a combined schedule app that syncs everyone’s Google or Apple iCal calendars, as well as a food shopping app called Groceries by MasterCard.

Inside the Hub fridge are two fish-eye cameras which snap a photo of the interior contents each time the doors closes. Photos can be viewed on the pending Samsung appliance app for shopping remotely. Interior cameras seem to be a growing smart fridge trend.

LG countered with its Signature refrigerator, which has a view-through window that turns translucent or dark by simply knocking on it. The door opens when you step on an “open door” holograph projected from the fridge onto the kitchen floor – and the fridge is smart enough to differentiate between you and a dog or cat who might happen to wander by. LG didn’t provide timing for when the fridge will be available.

Not to be outdone, Whirlpool announced its Connected French Door refrigerator, out this spring, along with a smart dishwasher and smart ranges in both gas and electric. All can be monitored and controlled from Whirlpool’s app, so you can check the refrigerator’s contents via internal Wi-Fi cameras, monitor and moderate the fridge’s varying zone temperatures, or initiate speed ice-making for parties.

Smart Appliance Ecosystems

As a result of Smart Appliances dependence on human interaction, appliances can’t perform much “If This Then That” (IFTTT) automation, nor can they work together—the washing machine or dishwasher won’t automatically eject its contents once the cleaning cycle is done, for instance, nor can a refrigerator order groceries by itself (at least, not yet). So just how “smart” appliances can ultimately become is an open question.

Despite these intelligence limitations, both Samsung and LG, along with Bosch, are attempting to build appliance ecosystems. In mid-2014, Samsung bought smart-home platform SmartThings, and all the company’s 2016 UHD TVs will double as SmartThings hubs and enable on-screen monitoring and control.

Meanwhile, LG is developing an overarching smart home/appliance platform, Smart ThinQ (confusingly pronounced “smart thin cue”). Smart ThinQ will allow LG’s appliances to communicate through an Amazon Echo-like tubular Bluetooth speaker hub equipped with a 3.5-inch color screen, Wi-Fi and ZigBee, Z-Wave, Nest and AllJoyn compatibility. There also will be small-button IR/motion sensors that can transmit limited information from normal appliances to the Smart ThinQ app.

Like Samsung, LG wants to make its controls available through a TV; a Smart ThinQ app will be included in the company’s webOS 3.0, which will first be available in the company’s new Signature OLED TVs, due later this year.

LG continues to promote HomeChat, a text-based, man-to-machine form of communication. But LG’s top-of-the-line Signature appliances lack HomeChat, which may imply the feature’s abandonment or absorption into Smart ThinQ.

Written by Stewart Wolpin

Market Commentary for the Week of February 22nd

 

This week brings us the release of seven economic reports to be concerned with in addition to two potentially relevant Treasury auctions. A couple of the reports are considered to be important to the markets and mortgage rates. There is something scheduled each day that can move rates except for Monday, so there is a strong chance of seeing a pretty active week for mortgage rates.

The first piece of data is January’s Existing Home Sales report by the National Association of Realtors late Tuesday morning. This data tracks home resales throughout the country, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It is expected to show a decline in sales of existing homes, meaning the housing sector softened last month. Ideally, the bond market would like to see a sizable decline in sales because weak housing makes broader economic growth more difficult. Since long-term securities such as mortgage bonds tend to thrive during weaker economic conditions, weak housing numbers would be good news for mortgage rates.

February’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be posted at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday morning. This Conference Board index measures consumer confidence in their personal financial situations, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are feeling good about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the economy, related data is considered important in terms of gauging economic activity. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from the 98.1 reading in January to 97.2 this month. A lower reading would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates since it would indicate consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future than many thought.

January’s New Home Sales report will be posted at 10:00 AM ET Wednesday morning. This is the least important report of the week, and is the sister report to the Existing Home Sales data. They measure housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually do not have a significant impact on bond trading or mortgage rates unless they show significant surprises. Wednesday’s report is expected to show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes, hinting at weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. The larger the decline, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

Thursday’s only monthly important report is January’s Durable Goods Orders data at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for items expected to last three or more years. Products such as electronics, refrigerators, airplanes and autos are examples of these big-ticket items. Analysts are expecting to see a 2.0% increase in new orders, hinting at manufacturing sector growth. This data is known to be volatile from month to month, so don’t be surprised if a modest variance from forecasts does not have much of an influence on Thursday’s mortgage rates.

Friday has the remaining three relevant pieces of economic data. The first of two revisions to the 4th Quarter GDP reading is scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET Friday morning. The GDP is considered the benchmark reading of economic growth or contraction because it is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. Analysts’ forecasts currently call for an annual rate of growth of 0.4%, down from the initial estimate of 0.7% that was posted last month. It will be interesting to see where this figure falls and what its impact on the markets will be. Generally speaking, higher levels of activity are bad news for the bond market, while a larger downward revision would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage pricing Friday.

January’s Personal Income and Outlays data is also scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET Friday morning. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Current forecasts call for an increase in income of 0.4% while spending is expected to rise 0.3%. Lower levels of income means consumers have less money to spend. And weaker levels of consumer spending helps limit overall economic growth, making long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. Therefore, the weaker the readings, the better the news it would be for mortgage rates.

The University of Michigan’s revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February will close out the week’s calendar just before 10:00 AM ET Friday. Current forecasts show this index rising slightly from its preliminary estimate of 90.7. This index is fairly important because it helps us measure consumer confidence that translates into consumer willingness to spend, but is not considered to be a major market mover. This means it will probably not have a significant impact on mortgage rates, especially with GDP revision and Personal Income & Outlays reports being released Friday morning.

In addition to this week’s economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Notes Wednesday and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, sales with higher levels of investor demand usually make bonds more attractive to investors and brings additional funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows translates into lower mortgage rates.

Overall, I think Friday is the most important day of the week but Thursday may be active also. The calmest could be Monday or Wednesday but we should still see some movement in rates those days. If floating an interest rate, it would be extremely prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional this week as bond yields (and mortgage rates) could make a noticeable higher if a majority of the data does not show weaker than predicted results.