Market Commentary for the Week of November 16th

 

This week has four economic reports scheduled for release that are relevant to mortgage rates in addition to the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. One of the reports is considered highly important to the bond market, so we may see a decent amount of movement in rates this week. This is especially true if stocks make a noticeable move higher or lower any particular day.

October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Labor Department will start the week’s calendar at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday. The CPI measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the more important reports the bond market sees each month. If it reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising at the consumer level, the bond market will probably react negatively and cause mortgage rates to move higher. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices.

Also Tuesday morning will be the release of October’s Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to reveal a 0.1% increase in production, indicating little strength in the manufacturing sector. Stronger levels of production would be considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this report is not expected to greatly influence the markets. Therefore, it will likely take a sizable variance from forecasts for it to have a noticeable impact on mortgage pricing.

October’s Housing Starts is Wednesday’s only economic data worth watching. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates. I don’t expect this month’s version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts. It is expected to show a drop in starts of new homes, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector softened last month.

However, also worth noting is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon that can have an impact on the financial and mortgage markets. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move regarding monetary policy, particularly when the first rate increase will come. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during afternoon trading. This release is one of those that may cause some volatility in the markets after they are posted, or could be a non-factor. If they show anything surprising regarding when the Fed will raise key short-term interest rates, we will see some movement in rates Wednesday afternoon.

The final report of the week will come from the Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET Thursday, when they release their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for October. This is a moderately important report that attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase, meaning economic activity will likely rise fairly quickly over the next couple of months. Generally speaking, this would be bad news for bonds. However, since this data is considered only moderately important, its results need to miss forecasts by a wide margin from forecasts for it to affect mortgage rates.

Overall, the most active day of the week will probably be Tuesday or Wednesday with two reports being posted each day. The best candidate for calmest day in rates is Friday as we may see reaction to the Paris terrorist attack Monday. Despite the fact this is not a particularly busy week, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if floating an interest rate and closing in the near future as the markets can get active at any time.

5 Reasons to Buy a Home During the Holidays

 

Whether you’ve been looking unsuccessfully to buy a home for awhile or you’ve just started, now may be the best time to buy a home. Because there’s less inventory, you may have to review your game plan. You do have a plan for must have features and would like features and deal breaking features, right? This allows you to go into a house and figure out how closely it matches your dream home and what you’re willing to settle for. Keep in mind the “bones” of the house and the lot size. You can always look into remodeling or adding on.

Work with your real estate agent. There are some strategies for finding hidden gems that aren’t on the market anymore.

One strategy is to research “old expires,” which refers to homes that were for sale several years ago but weren’t sold at that time.

Another approach is for the broker to send letters to homeowners in your preferred neighborhood, fishing for someone who’s willing to sell a home that meets your criteria.

A third technique is to call brokers who sell a lot of homes in your target area and ask them about homes that aren’t yet listed, but are being prepped for sale and are “coming soon.”

Fewer People Looking for Homes

Most people have stopped looking because they think there’s fewer homes. And there are a lot of family, work and school activities combined with bad weather in many locations. So even though the inventory may be lower, you may have a better chance at getting a home. You may also find better prices.

Motivated Sellers

People selling their homes have often lowered their prices or are willing to make other concessions in order to get their place sold quickly.  Some people had their homes overpriced and are more open to negotiating.

If it’s a recent listing, they’re very serious about selling this house. Perhaps they’ve recently gotten divorced, have to relocate for a new job opportunity, or are under some other personal pressure. This puts you, the buyer, in a much better position to negotiate and ultimately cut a deal, particularly since competition is minimal this time of year.

Tax Advantages

Consult with a tax professional before you make your purchase. You don’t want to make the decision solely on a tax advantage, but it helps to get good advice before purchasing so you know what you can deduct. Usually, you can deduct home purchase costs, including mortgage interest, property taxes and points.

Better Interest Rates

Interest rates tend to trend down during the holidays due to limited demand which creates greater competition amongst lenders. Get in touch with a professional loan officer to get a rate locked in when you get pre-qualified.

Faster Closings

Everyone is motivated to get the deal done and there are fewer people needing to go through the closing process.

Make sure you talk with your real estate agent and mortgage about their holiday plans and get your expectations set.

Three Negotiating Mistakes Sellers Make

 

As a seller, when you list your home for sale, you may think you’ve priced it right, staged it beautifully, and timed the market for a quick sale. You followed all of the advice from your real estate agent.

But, the reality is that buyers are full of surprises most of which are predictable. They rarely pay list price; they discount or dismiss improvements you’ve made; their inspections usually turn up something for you to fix, and they may have terms that you weren’t counting on — like needing to sell their home before they buy yours.

Whether you plan to or not, you’re going to have to negotiate. Negotiating doesn’t mean you win and the buyer loses, or you lose and the buyer wins. It’s simply a way to make smaller concessions so that you don’t lose the buyer and the buyer doesn’t lose your house. Negotiation is designed for both of you to get what you want.

You’ve done something right or you wouldn’t have an offer on your home, but a sale isn’t in the bag yet. Don’t blow it. Here are three negotiating mistakes to avoid.

Demanding top dollar for an aging property

Yes, the market is better than it was during the recession, but an older home that hasn’t been updated or maintained to perfection can’t compete with refreshed or newer homes.

Tastemakers suggest that interiors need updating every 10 years because color, patterns and textures define each generation. The Ikat prints, HGTV bright colors and white marble kitchens of today will go out of style, just as the Harvest Golds and Avocado Greens of the 70s gave way to the pastels and Native American prints of the 80s, and the 90s jewel tones and velvets were replaced by concrete floors and exposed brick in the new millennium.

When you’ve lived in a home for some years, you miss the dings and scuffs that make a home look used. You don’t see the age of your finishes and fixtures the way buyers see them. Even if it’s not torn or broken, buyers may see certain things as needing to be replaced.

Getting angry at a low offer

A buyer may make an offer for your home that is far lower than you feel it’s worth. Don’t take it personally — it’s a negotiating tactic. If the buyer didn’t want the home, there would be no offer, so at least you know the buyer wants to negotiate.

The buyer isn’t really expecting you to take 20 percent off the list price, but they are using a low price to tell you something. Your job is to find out what that something is. Have your agent ask the buyer’s agent for the reasoning behind the low offer before you provide a written response. The buyer could be using inaccurate comparables, they could be trying to buy above their price range, or they may be investors who use a low-ball formula to acquire properties.

No offers or extremely low offers could be telling you that your home is overpriced compared to other similar homes. If your agent told you an estimated range where homes similar to yours are selling and you priced above that range, you need to lower the price. A low offer can also mean the market is slowing down and the buyer feels more confident. Ask your agent for an updated CMA so you can see where the market is heading.

All or nothing attitude

Negotiations keep the dialog fluid and the buyer interested. That’s why asking questions before you say no is a good idea. If you know that the buyer wants, it’s easier for you to offer a deal that will work for both of you.

In a seller’s market, you may expect buyers to give you multiple bids for your home and that could happen, but it’s rare. In a soft market, your buyer could simply walk away and find another home to buy because there are other homes on the market. You need to be flexible on the points that count most with the buyer, like move-in dates, and the buyer is more likely to be flexible with you on repairs or other negotiation.

Remember, you want to sell your home and your buyer wants to buy it. Maximize your offers with good negotiating techniques and move on with your life. And when you buy your next home, you’ll be more experienced and a better negotiator knowing the seller’s side of things.

Written by Blanche Evans

Market Commentary for the Week November 9th

 

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of only three monthly or quarterly economic reports for the markets to digest along with two relevant Treasury auctions. One of those three reports is considered to be a key piece of data though. The bond market will be closed Wednesday in observance of the Veteran’s Day holiday, but the stock markets will be open for business.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for Monday, so we can expect bonds and mortgage rates to be driven by stock movement. Friday’s Employment report-fueled bond sell-off could extend into Monday’s trading, pressuring rates to start the week.

The first events of the week will be the two important Treasury auctions Thursday. Due to the holiday Wednesday, both auctions will be held Thursday instead of two days. 10-year Treasury Notes and 30-year Bonds will be sold, giving us an indication of demand for long-term securities. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading Thursday. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds will probably result in upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Friday has all three monthly reports. The Commerce Department will give us October’s Retail Sales figures at 8:30 AM ET. This data measures consumer or retail level spending. It is considered extremely important to the markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase, meaning consumers spent more last month than they did in September. A larger increase in spending would be considered negative news for bonds because rising spending fuels economic growth and raises inflation concerns in the bond market. If

Friday’s report reveals a decline in spending that indicates consumers spent less than thought, bonds should react favorably, pushing mortgage rates lower. If it shows an unexpected increase, mortgage rates will likely move higher.

Next up is October’s Producer Price Index (PPI), also at 8:30 AM ET. This is considered to be a key inflation reading that tracks inflationary pressures at the manufacturing level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Signs of rapidly rising inflation make long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors and leads to higher mortgage rates. The overall reading is expected to show a 0.1% increase from September while the core data is expected to rise 0.1% also. Weaker than expected readings would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates, while a larger than forecasted increase in the core reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.

The week’s economic calendar closes late Friday morning when November’s preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is posted. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 92.0, up from October’s final reading of 90.0. That would be considered negative news for bonds because rising sentiment means consumers are more optimistic about their own financial situations and are more likely to make large purchases in the near future. And with consumer spending so important, any related data is watched closely. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage shoppers.

Overall, Friday is likely to be the most active day for mortgage rates with all of this week’s data scheduled, including the highly important Retail Sales report. The calmest will probably be Wednesday since I see many lenders being open for business despite the bond market closure. There is a good possibility of seeing a fairly calm day Tuesday also as some bond trading firms may be on skeleton staff ahead of the holiday. Despite the light economic calendar, there is still a decent chance of seeing a noticeable move in rates this week. Therefore, it would prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

Three Advantages to Selling Your Home During the Holidays

 

If you’re thinking of selling your home but holding off on listing it until January, this article is for you. There are three big advantages to selling your home in the next two months.

1. There’s less competition. A reduced inventory means there are more buyers checking out your property.
2. Buyers are more motivated during the holidays. They may need to buy a home for tax reasons before December 31. They may be moving because they start a new job in January. The bottom line is that they want to buy.
3. Your home already looks great. So make sure you put up some festive decorations that enhance your home. Keep clutter to a minimum, and keep decorations tasteful and neutral.

Buyers are more serious during the holidays. And they are also more emotional. Seeing a warm home decorated for the holidays will motivate them to pay more.


Another great reason to sell during the holidays is that most people have time off. And that means they’ll have more time to devote to house hunting.

Did you know that internet searches during the holidays dramatically increases? Many home buyers devote a large portion of their house hunting time during the holidays to searching online as opposed to driving around looking for open houses. They can then whittle down their list to their top few. To get your home found, you need to have it on the market.

And if you think it’s a hassle because you tend to travel, think again. That’s actually a bonus that makes it easier for real estate agents to show your home. Everything will be vacant and stay clean. You can keep the heat on to keep potential buyers happy. And your home won’t look vacant with people coming and going.

If you don’t want to be disturbed during your holidays, set a daily showing schedule where agents know when they can bring people by. You can also have black out dates where the home is entirely off-limits. Your listing will stay on the MLS but you won’t be inconvenienced.

If your home has been on the market for awhile, it tends to mean that buyers and their agents believe it to be stale and overpriced.  So you could use this time to lower the price or see if there are any simple maintenance or cosmetic fixes you could do to make your house look more valuable. Increasing your curb appeal should be a priority during the winter months anyway. Keep your gutters clean and walkways free of snow, ice, and slippery leaves.

An added bonus is that if you sell your home before the end of the year, you will have the cash in hand for buying your next home in the Spring when there are more listings. And if you have cash in hand, you will look like a better buyer and have fewer hoops to jump through.

Work with your real estate agent to find the strategy that works best for you.

How to Attract Only Serious Buyers

 

Serious buyers are ready to find a home. They’ve been pre-approved by a lender, are under contract with a real estate agent, and are ready to make an offer on the right home.
A Lookie-Loo is a person who is not seriously in the market to buy a home. “Loo” could be a nosy neighbor, an open house junkie, or someone who thinks they’re serious, but are not able to make a realistic offer.

When determining your marketing strategy, your real estate professional will know what works to get serious buyers coming to see your home, and what will discourage people who will waste your time.

Attracting Serious Buyers

In any market, your home is competing with new construction that offers never-lived-in appeal – pristine appointments, hardwood floors, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and more. In a slow market, builders offer landscaping discounts, points on mortgage loans, and decorating allowances as incentives.

Your home is also competing with your neighbors’ homes for sale, which may be in better condition or more updated than yours. You may also be in a market that still has a large number of foreclosures that are pulling home prices down.

The point is that buyers want the most value, no matter what the market is doing. Don’t assume that because home prices are up and sales are picking up that buyers will negotiate any less. Verify market prices with your agent. Price your home for today’s market reality.

Your job is to prepare your home to attract serious buyers. Move-in ready condition is what most buyers want, and you have to provide it. Your agent’s job is network, advertise, and market to make buyers aware of your home and interested in buying it. If the marketing pictures show a problem, you’re not going to attract serious buyers.

Stage your home to best advantage – declutter, depersonalize, clean thoroughly, enhance curb appeal, fresh paint, fresh landscaping. Fix every little thing that’s broken or not working smoothly – no sticking drawers, no wobbly doorknobs. Don’t give buyers room to make unrealistic offers.
Do something extra for your home – some remodeling, new appliances, new countertops can work wonders for buyers. Do something extra for the buyer, like provide a history of the home.

Discouraging Lookie-Loos

The only thing your agent can do to discourage Lookie-Loos is to encourage serious buyers to consider your home. Your agent can network with other agents and tell them all the things you’ve done to attract a serious, realistic offer. They will bring qualified, interested buyers to view your home.

Make sure your agent creates a really good online presentation of your home with lots of pictures, a virtual tour, local amenities, school data, and more. The idea is to give buyers enough information to put your home on their short list.

Your agent can also employ niche marketing and out of box marketing ideas. If your home is near a college, for example, she can advertise in college papers, alumni magazines, billboards or student housing websites.

The more questions you can answer about your home and neighborhood online, the less interested Lookie-Loos will be in traipsing through your home, either at an open house or with their agents.
If you do have an open house, don’t make it easy for people to have the run of your home. Have your agent register visitors and view their identification. Serious buyers won’t be offended but non-serious buyers will be very reluctant to provide personal information. Those are the people you don’t need.

Despite your precautions, some Lookie-Loos will slip through, making appointments that waste your agent’s time and yours, but look at it this way – if your home is ready for market and priced to sell, it’s a good deal for any buyer, even a Lookie-Loo.

Written by Blanche Evans

Market Commentary for the Week of November 2nd

 

This week brings us the release of five economic reports for the markets to digest with two of those reports being much more important than the others. In addition to the data, there is also a high number of speaking engagements by Federal Reserve members, including one by Fed Chair Yellen to the House Financial Services Committee mid-week.

The first release of the week will come from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who will post their manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET Monday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment, which is important because it gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is considered to be one of the more important reports we see each month, partly because it is the first report every month that tracks the preceding month’s activity. Monday’s release is expected to show a reading of 50.0, indicating that manufacturer sentiment slipped from September’s level. This means fewer surveyed manufacturing executives felt business improved during the month than in September, hinting at slower manufacturing sector growth. A smaller than expected reading would be good news for bonds and likely lead to lower mortgage rates Monday. It is worth noting that a reading below 50.0 is significant because it indicates contraction in the sector.

The second report of the week will be September’s Factory Orders data at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show a 0.9% decline in new orders from August’s level. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while an unexpected rise would be bad news and could push rates slightly higher Tuesday morning since it would indicate economic strength. It is worth noting though, that this report is not considered to be highly important to mortgage rates.

Wednesday’s only report worth watching is the ADP Employment report before the markets open. It has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers than expected. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of ADP’s clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we have seen reaction to the report, we should be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that 180,000 new payrolls were added. The lower the number of jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

The 3rd Quarter Productivity reading will be released Thursday at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show a 0.2% decline in worker productivity during the third quarter. A large increase would be good news for the bond market because higher levels of employee productivity allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern. This is a relatively low importance report, meaning it will take a significant variance from forecasts for it to directly affect mortgage rates.

The last report of the week is the most important. Friday brings us the release of arguably the most important monthly piece of economic news- the Employment report. The Labor Department will post October’s employment stats early Friday morning. The report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for no change in the unemployment rate, holding at 5.1%, an increase in payrolls of approximately 185,000 and a 0.2% increase in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should renew concerns about the labor market and rally bonds enough to improve mortgage rates, especially if the stock markets react poorly to the news.

Overall, the single most important day is Friday but Monday is likely to be pretty active also. Tuesday will probably be the calmest day unless something unexpected happens. We have relevant data set for release each day of the week and a full Fed speaking schedule that can cause ripples in the markets at any time. They lead me to believe that we will see another active week for mortgage rates. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating a rate and closing in the near future.